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JULY 18,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

AS EXPECTED – Yeah, we figured this some time ago.  From Fox:  "VIENNA – Iran and six world powers agreed Friday to extend talks over Tehran’s nuclear program until Nov. 24.  In a statement released Friday night, Secretary of State John Kerry, who flew into Vienna a week ago to try and advance the talks, said, 'it is clear to me that we have made tangible progress in our comprehensive negotiations, but there are very real gaps in some areas… diplomacy takes time, and persistence is needed to determine whether we can achieve our objectives peacefully.'"  As Johnny Carson used to say, "Aren't we lucky."  In these next four months Iran will make further progress toward a nuclear weapon.  And please notice the next deadline – about three weeks after our midterm elections.  In other words, any agreement will be announced after those elections, so Americans will not have a chance to consider it in their vote.  Look for major Obama concessions, as usual.

GOOD POLITICAL NEWS, POSSIBLY – From the Washington Free Beacon:  "Rep. Cory Gardner (R., Colo.) is up by four points against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall due to his strong showing with independent voters, according to a new poll.  Gravis Marketing released results of a survey of 1,106 registered voters in Colorado on Tuesday.  According to the poll:  Gravis Marketing first surveyed the US Senate race to find that Congressman Cory Gardner (R) leading Democratic Senator Mark Udall 47 percent-43 percent with the Libertarian candidate Gaylon Kent taking 6 percent in the poll. This seat is currently listed as a tossup in the Realclearpolitics.com average and is being seen as a must win race by both parties in order to maintain or take control of the US Senate."  Note that the poll was among registered voters.  Polls among likely voters usually show an increase in the Republican number.  We might just pull this one out.

YIKES – I'm not so sure this is good.  From Breitbart:  "Back in 2007 Forbes magazine purchased 51 percent of the then-wildly growing website RealClearPolitics.com. Now, in 2014, a Chinese company has purchased a majority position in Forbes itself.  A highly visited site, RealClearPolitics.com was created in Chicago in the year 2000 by John McIntyre and Tom Bevan and grew at an amazing rate, becoming one of the most trafficked political sites on the web. By 2007 Forbes Media took notice and purchased a 51 percent share in the site.  Upon the purchase, Forbes Media decided to let McIntyre and Bevan continue to run the site as they had always done before.  For the last year or so, Forbes itself has been up for sale, and after eight months on the block, this sale was anything but a sure bet as one company after another bowed out of the running. At last the media company found an investor in China."  RealClearPolitics is one of the best election-reporting sites on the web.  I hate to see it leave American control.  If the new investors are wise, they'll leave it alone.

July 18, 2014       Permalink

THE NEW REALITY – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  Among the "new" realities we're living with in America is actually a practice that used to be quite common.  From The Los Angeles Times:   

More Americans than ever live in multigenerational households, and the number of millennials who live with their parents is rising sharply, according to a study released Thursday.

A record 57 million Americans, or 18.1% of the population, lived in multigenerational arrangements in 2012, according to the Pew Research Center. That's more than double the 28 million people who lived in such households in 1980, the center said.

The sluggish job market and other factors have propelled the rise in millennials living in their childhood bedrooms.

About 23.6% of people age 25 to 34 live with their parents, grandparents or both, according to Pew. That’s up from 18.7% in 2007, just prior to the global financial crisis, and from 11% in 1980.

For the first time, a larger share of young people live in multigenerational arrangements than of Americans 85 and older.

Historically, large numbers of the elderly live with and are cared for by their own children. The share of people in the older age group living in multigenerational households rose between 2000 and 2012 to 22.7%, but the percentage of millennials living with their parents jumped even more.

The number of multigenerational families soared during the recession. It has continued to rise since then, although at a slower pace.

COMMENT:  I dunno.  Maybe something good will come of this.  Families seem to have drifted apart during my lifetime, thanks to long highways, cars in every household, and the ease of flying to distant destinations.  Maybe a little renewed togetherness will remind people of the value of staying close to loved ones.  Or am I just being sentimental?

July 18, 2014       Permalink

PUTIN ROMPS – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:  Well, Obama may be having his PR problems, and his standing in the polls is nothing to brag about, but there's one president who's doing just fine.  His name is Vladimir Putin.  From Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

After another grueling week of photo-ops, speeches and political fundraisers, President Obama is taking a getaway weekend today, up to Camp David.

There, he won't have to learn from the media the news that his arch-rival in the global presidential power sweepstakes, Russia's Vladimir Putin, has tied a record high approval among his countrymen in a new Gallup Poll out this morning.

As Obama wallows in the low 40's in overall job approval among Americans, with even lower ratings in specific areas, Putin has just scored nearly twice that -- 83% approval. The new Gallup survey finds that, as Russians historically do, they really like Putin's strong leadership and admire his successes in simply annexing Crimea this spring and staging a successful Olympics.

Putin's approval is up a whopping 29 points since last year, attributed to a greater sense of national pride and improvement in the Russian economy, despite ineffective sanctions by the United States and European Union over Putin's disruptive involvement in next-door Ukraine.

Experiencing the usual mainstream media obeisance, Obama announced new sanctions on Russia Wednesday as if they were a big deal. On Thursday Putin phoned to talk and informed Obama of the downing of a Malaysian commercial airliner near Russia's border with the loss of 295 lives, possibly two dozen of them Americans.

Suspicions focused on Russian-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. But the missile was most likely Russian-made.

Putin, who just returned from a successful week-long diplomatic foray into Obama's geographic backyard in South America, has convinced 73% of Russians that their country is headed in the right direction. You may remember previously Putin out-maneuvered Obama over the American's empty red-line threat about Syria's use of chemical weapons in its civil war.

COMMENT:  We'd never elect a Putin here, and wouldn't want one.  But he does show that one of the required qualities in a leader is strength.  Putin has it.  Obama has it only when campaigning. 

There are reasons why we're being beaten all over the world.

July 18, 2014       Permalink

DEVASTATING – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  Charles Krauthammer is about the best commentator around.  Even many of those who disagree with him respect his intellect and his wit.  He has been particularly sharp on Barack (come to save us) Obama, and was one of the first to point out that the demigod is less than godlike.  Here is his latest assessment.  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

Columnist Charles Krauthammer tore into President Obama Thursday on Special Report over his passivity on supporting the Ukrainian government in its fight against pro-Russian rebels, challenging him to “make a damned decision for once in his life.”

In the context of the Malaysian airliner shot down Thursday, allegedly by pro-Russian separatists, Obama refusing to visit the site of the southern border crisis and appearing behind on such scandals as those in the Department of Veterans Affairs and IRS, Krauthammer said Obama has “had no reaction to anything that I can tell in the last six months.”

“It isn’t as if we’re going to go to war with Russia, but we have denied Ukraine lethal weaponry,” Krauthammer said. “The rebels and the Russians are killing Ukrainians in large numbers by shooting them out of the sky. The least the president can do is to make a damned decision for once in his life. Announce that we are now going to supply lethal weapons to assist the Ukrainians in defending themselves and in completing the offensive that is now going on in Eastern Ukraine to actually destroy the rebel insurgency.”

Obama made a brief statement about MH17 Thursday before making a prepared speech about infrastructure. He then headed to New York for two fundraisers.

COMMENT:  I do believe that Obama now stands unmasked before all except his True Believers.  There's a point where you're so bad that even friends and lovers notice.  But we still have to live with this man for another two and a half years.  That is 20 lifetimes in politics.  Makes me believe we may want to develop some means, other than impeachment, for removing a president, or at least forcing him or her to be ratified in a special election.  Think about it.

July 18, 2014        Permalink

THE AIRLINER – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  While the president of the United States attended fundraisers in New York yesterday, the rest of the sane world was fixed on the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine.  We're now learning more.  From CNN:

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Friday blasted the "terrorists" he blamed for shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine a day earlier, with 298 people aboard.

He called on all governments to back the investigation and "to support the Ukrainian government to bring to justice all these bastards who committed this international crime."

Since the Malaysia Airlines jet fell from the sky above eastern Ukraine on Thursday, Russia and Ukraine -- which routinely uses the word "terrorists" to describe pro-Russian separatists -- have traded blame and accusations.

Now, a preliminary classified U.S. intelligence analysis has concluded that the missile that hit Flight 17 most likely was fired by pro-Russian separatists inside eastern Ukraine, according to a U.S. defense official with direct access to the latest information.

The official declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information.

Earlier, a senior U.S. official said the United States concluded that a missile shot down the plane.

"Terrorists have killed almost 300 persons with one shot," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Thursday. "Among them are women, children, citizens of different countries of the world."

COMMENT:  Incredible, but we still don't know if there were any Americans aboard.  And the reaction from Western Europe has been less than strong.  Business ties between Europe and Russia are strong, and seem to dictate reaction to anything Russia does.

I'd imagine there'll be some rumbling, and appropriately anguished statements for a few days, or a week, and then things will return to normal.  Obama doesn't appear much interested.  His weakness is now a given.  John Kerry spent a good part of yesterday lecturing the Israelis about applying too much force in their actions against Hamas. 

The world, after all, hasn't gotten too exercised about the murder of 140,000 Syrians in the last year. 

July 18,  2014     Permalink

JULY 17,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:  The headline at Hot Air says it best:  "Pretty much everyone expressing dismay over White House response to world falling apart."  Incredibly, despite the shootdown of an airliner over Ukraine, with the loss of 195 lives, some of them possibly American, President Obama attended two fundraisers in New York today.  His first response to the airliner incident was that it 'it looks like a terrible tragedy.'"  Yeah, we can agree on that.  Sure looks like it, can ruin an afternoon.

STUNNING – We've been wondering when some major military figures, who aren't concerned about the remainder of their careers, would take on the president.  Now it's happened.  From the Washington Times:  "Four-star Gen. James Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps, used a speaking engagement at the Brookings Institute on Tuesday to deliver a stinging rebuke of the Obama administration’s handling of Iraq.
'I have a hard time believing that had we been there, and worked with the government, and worked with parliament, and worked with the minister of defense, the minister of interior, I don’t think we’d be in the same shape we’re in today,' Gen. Amos said, the Fiscal Times reported Wednesday.  It is rare for an active-duty serviceman to give such blunt public criticism of a sitting president. While Gen. Amos was careful not to mention the president by name, The Fiscal Times reported that the top general’s upcoming retirement this fall may have played a role in his decision."  I wonder if they'll give him the retirement parade.  He spoke for a lot of Americans.

WHOOPS – Rand Paul is in the soup again.  From the Washington Free Beacon:  "Sen. Rand Paul’s (R., Ky.) office deleted a 'student reading list' that promoted anti-Israel books from his official Senate website this week, shortly after the Weekly Standard published an article last Friday highlighting the controversial recommendations.  Paul’s Senate website has advertised the list of 17 books as 'suggested titles for a student, or anyone else interested in learning more about freedom and the role of government in a free society' under a 'students' section since 2011.  While most of the recommended titles focus on economic policy, the list also included books that claim the 'Israel Lobby' controls U.S. foreign policy, call for the United States to cut ties with the Jewish state, and argue that support for Israel is anti-Christian and anti-American."  The question is, why was such a list on a Rand Paul website in the first place?  Rand Paul has gone to great lengths, admirably so, to separate himself from the bigoted views of his father, but these incidents keep popping up.  A few years ago it was discovered that one of Paul's staff members was boosting loyalty to the Confederacy.  The act needs further cleaning up.

WACKY – From CNS:  "Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power posted photos on Twitter Wednesday to illustrate the purported effects of climate change on a West African nation’s coastline, but the pictures show a hotel that collapsed into the sea 12 years ago, the victim of erosion blamed largely on years of illegal mining of coastal sand.  'Had sobering meeting with Benin’s U.N. Ambassador, who described the devastating effects of climate change on his coastal country,' she tweeted. 'Showed me chilling photos of eroding coastline, said "that’s climate change – a daily life of falling in the sea."'  Although not identified by Power, the two photos posted with the tweet are of the remains of the Palm Hotel in Cotonou, the largest city in Benin, a small, narrow country tucked between Nigeria and Togo. The building collapsed in 2002, 20 years after it was built."  I'm so moved by the fact that "climate change" has now become an officially accepted excuse for governmental failure in Africa.  What else could possibly cause a relatively new building to fall into the sea?

July 17, 2014       Permalink

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF THE FUTURE? – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:   There is no shortage of predictions as to what our parties will look like in the future.  Many of these predictions will fade away, as time and experience change voters' views.

A recent Pew survey is fascinating, though, in what it reveals about splits in the Democratic Party.  There may even be a chance that sanity might eventually prevail on some issues.  From The New York Times:

There is a striking generational split in the Democratic electorate.

This deepening division is apparent in a June Pew Research Center survey of more than 10,000 people, “Beyond Red vs. Blue.” The Pew survey points up the emergence of a cohort of younger voters who are loyal to the Democratic Party, but much less focused on economic redistribution than on issues of personal and sexual autonomy.

Back in April, Pew researchers wrote that “huge generation gaps have opened up in our political and social values, our economic well-being, our family structure, our racial and ethnic identity, our gender norms, our religious affiliation, and our technology use.” These trends, Pew noted, point “toward a future marked by the most striking social, racial, and economic shifts the country has seen in a century.”

I asked Andrew Kohut, the founding director of the Pew Center, what he made of these results. He emailed me his thoughts: “There is a libertarian streak that is apparent among these left-of-center young people. Socially liberal but very wary of government. Why? They came of age in an anti-government era when government doesn’t work. They are very liberal on interpersonal racial dimension, but reject classic liberal notions about ways of achieving social progress for minorities.”

And get this:

Eighty-three percent of the older group of Democratic voters believes that “circumstances” are to blame for poverty; only 9 percent blame “a lack of effort.” The younger group of pro-Democratic voters is split, with 47 percent blaming circumstances and 42 percent blaming lack of effort. An overwhelming majority of the older cohort, 83-12, believes that “government should do more to help needy Americans, even if it means more debt,” while a majority of the younger Democratic respondents, 56-39, believes “government cannot afford to do much more.”

COMMENT:  Fascinating.  Read the whole thing.  There may be hope for the nation yet.

July 17, 2014       Permalink

PLEASANT SURPRISE – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  One state expected to be tough for Republicans in their drive to gain control of the Senate is Iowa, where the election will decide who will replace retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin.  But there is good polling news that should give us encouragement.  From Paul Mirengoff at Powerline: 

A new NBC/Marist poll of the Iowa Senate race finds Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 43 percent. The poll is of registered voters.

The NBC/Marist result is in line with the findings, viewed collectively, of three surveys conducted last month. A Quinnipiac poll had Braley ahead by 4; a Loras College poll had Ernst up by 6; and a Rasmussen poll gave Ernst a 1 point lead.

After the Loras poll results were released, I said that the Rasmussen poll seemed to best reflect the state of the race. The NBC/Marist poll confirms my assessment.

And...

...even more than in a normal campaign, this race will probably turn on how well the candidates present themselves. But other things being about equal, Ernst will have an edge if, as many expect, Republicans benefit from greater enthusiasm on the part of their potential voters.

And a “war on women” theme presumably will prove less than compelling when trotted out against Joni Ernst.

COMMENT:  Ernst is a member of the State Senate and a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard.  She is raising more money than her opponent, Bruce Braley, who is given to gaffes. 

It will probably be close, but it looks very winnable for our side.

July 17, 2014       Permalink

THOSE DEVIL DETAILS – AT 8:48 A.M. ET:   There's no doubt that Hillary Clinton has been hurt by her recent gaffes and revelations about the vast income that she and her husband receive by marketing their public careers, careers largely paid for by the public.  Opinion polls show a long, steady decline.

Now Britain's Daily Mail brings together some details about the Hillary operation that can't do her any good:

Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state who is preparing to run for president on a populist platform of fighting income inequality, demanded $2,777 per minute for two university speaking engagements and insisted on contracts that cut off reporters' access to her and limited the number of photos she would take with well-wishers.

The Harry Walker Agency drew up legal agreements for Clinton's speeches at the State University of New York at Buffalo in August 2013 and at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas next month.

Combined, the two gigs netted the Clintons' family foundation $500,000 for three hours' work, and allowed her to cancel or reschedule the events 'for any reason whatsoever.'

The Clinton Foundation, of course, is staffed by people who would play a role in any new Clinton campaign or administration.

The once-and-maybe-future White House resident is routinely granted iron-grip control over the
circumstances surrounding her speeches.

Both contracts, one published online by The Washington Post and the other by The Daily Caller, paint a picture of a control-freak PR machine surrounding Hillary.

Her 'participation at the event including the speech and reception will be closed to the press, unless otherwise agreed to in writing,' the UNLV contract reads

'There will be no other media opportunities or availabilities (i.e.. press conferences, statements. etc.).'

The Buffalo appearance earned Clinton $275,000 for an hour on stage and a 30-minute photo line – limited to 50 photos of her alongside no more than 100 people.

UNLV will pay her another $225,000 for a similar 90-minute commitment, although angry students there have asked her to refund her fees since their tuition has nearly tripled since a decade ago.

COMMENT:  Revelations like this are being greeted with increasing dismay within the Democratic Party, whose base clearly has a soft spot for the far more left-wing Elizabeth Warren.  If more and more revelations come out, I would not be shocked to see Warren mount a challenge to Hillary, or see Hillary withdraw.

In a way, that's sad.  I am no admirer of Hillary Clinton's style, and raw ambition, but she may be the most rational of Democratic contenders for the presidency.  She made a statement on American exceptionalism a few days ago that was absolutely magnificent – pointing out what this country has done for human freedom.  It could have been said by any Republican.

Strangely, she almost reminds me of Richard Nixon.  Nixon was an extremely talented man, who threw it away because of real character flaws.  Hillary may be going down that same path.

July 17, 2014       Permalink

THE COST OF BARACK OBAMA – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  This probably sums up one cost of the border crisis better than anything I've read.  From NRO: 

Former national deputy chief of the U.S. Border Patrol Ronald Colburn tells National Review Online that the Obama administration has undone all of the progress made at America’s southern border since 9/11.

“We’re back to a pre-9/11 situation basically, and this administration did that in the past five years,” he says. “All of the good that was done after 9/11 up to now has been reversed singlehandedly.”

Colburn, who spent more than 30 years working for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, says the resulting national-security risk has to do with the “clutter” of people at the border. He says all of the gains made since 9/11 came as a result of reducing the number of people crossing the border. The Border Patrol’s task is to sort through the haystack of people as they come across, he says. “What this situation on the border is doing is growing the haystack, is adding clutter, so that those dangerous needles get through because we’re tied up capturing, instead, juvenile children from Guatemala and El Salvador,” he says. “When you see the cartels — the Zetas and MS-13 and the Gulf Cartel — laughing about this on the Internet, you know what’s behind it.”

COMMENT:  It's also been widely reported that, mixed in the flood of people coming across the border, are some from the Middle East, who may well be terror operatives.  It is no secret that Iran has a military relationship with Venezuela.  From bases in Venezuela, operatives can be sent north. 

July 17,  2014     Permalink